As we enter into the last week of May 2023, we are tracking at 67.9% of last year’s sales numbers for the same period of time (May 1st through 24th). It’s likely we will close at 2013 – 2014 levels.

We are also selling about -3.35% for average home prices. I honestly expected a bigger year over year lost given interest rates.

What’s keeping prices up? Inventory. At this time, we have 1.56 months worth of homes on the market.

Where is this headed? I suspect we are in for a slow burn. The Fed has shown their willingness to do whatever they can to keep the market slowly burning. This does assume everything remains equal.

Will there be a crash? Only if there is a Black Swan event (re Nassim Taleb).

What is a Black Swan? It’s an unpredictable event that causes an outsize impact. However, even then if the Fed will just backstop these events, will that impact register?

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