Grok The Market

Tag: hypercoherence

  • A Decade of DOM

    This morning’s graph is a representation of the average Days on Market (DOM) for closed homes by month over the last decade. As you can see below, we are back over over the last several months or so to around 2015 territory. Inventory in the area remains low (less than two months) which is helping […]

  • March 2023 down 30.7% from March 2022

    Running the numbers today…as of 21 March 2023, sales are at 69.3% of last year’s volume of sales. Stated another way, the number of sales is down 30.7% from last year. That puts us around a projected 2015 levels of sales for the month.

  • Has housing in Colorado Springs beat the historical 3% return?

    Has housing in Colorado Springs beat the historical 3% return?

    Three percent is often cited as the historical annual appreciation of housing. Let’s take a look at the last seventeen years and how the Springs as a region measures against that percentage. What you see in the line chart below is that hypothetical / projected 3% since 2006 based on the average price of a […]

  • Want to know where home pricing is going? Follow the M2.

    What you see here is a scatterplot mapping the average monthly closed price of a home in the Colorado Springs region alongside the M2 money supply. What is the M2? The M2 is a measure of how much money is available for people to spend and invest in an economy. It includes all the physical […]

  • 4Q2022+ Types of Sales

    Here is the distribution of types of sales from the 4th quarter of 2022 through this morning. These are pretty consistent with our market norms.

  • Feb 2023 sales numbers close out down 29.6% YOY

    February 2023 closed down 29.6% from the previous year by number of sales. That is the second largest drop February to February as a percentage since at least 1996, eclipsed only by 2007-2008 which saw a 31.7% drop. Sales price was down app. $8,500 over last February. February 2011-2012 was the last time the average […]

  • 17 years of home sales

    Take a look at this chart. It’s seventeen years of homes sales in the region. There are a lot of takeaways here, from the seasonality of the number of sales to the impact of Coronavirus and then the interest rate adjustments. What else do you see?

  • Are houses selling above or below list price?

    This question hit my inbox this morning. The answer is “mostly below on the average right now”. Here is a breakdown of the top 20 selling subareas in the region (as measured by their number of sales). Here’s how to read this: Banning Lewis Ranch is the number one selling subarea YTD and is closing […]

  • Inventory in the top 20 Subareas & Banning Lewis Ranch

    Bottom line: inventory in these subareas is lower than I expected to see, with the exception of Banning Lewis Ranch. The low inventory across the board seems to be helping holding pricing up.

  • Feb 2023 Closed Prices Down 6.18% from List

    Here’s a quick rundown on the month to date. We are tracking 247 sales, down 44.12% from last year this time (through the 12th of Feb). We are closing at 6.18% down from the original list price on those sales. With a closed to current list price percentage down 1.82%, that means homes are dropping […]