Grok The Market

As of 28 October 2022, we are down about 42% in the PPAR region for volume of sales.

September 2022 closed out at just over 2018 volume of sales. This was better than I expected considering the prior months activity. Rate shock normalizing a bit?

Assuming the M2 holds on par with the last several months, there is a .903 correlation (R2) to the median pricing in town and a .869 to average pricing. Interest rates to M2 are .665. Interest rates to median pricing is .457. Interest rates to average pricing is .407. What does this all mean? Follow […]

Here are the last 3 years of 7 day average and median pricing in the region.

August 2022 in the region is closing at in between 2014 and 2015 levels. Sales are down 31% from last August.

What you see here is a running percentage of July sales as part of inventory from 1996 to 2022. Jonathan Easley and I were talking numbers earlier today and he asked me to plot this statistic for him. How you read the graph is this: in July 2022, we sold 101% of the active listings. […]

Here are the last 26 years of August(es) number of sales. At the current rate of sales, I think we will probably close at 2012 or 2013 levels. UPDATE: Adding July’s for trend analysis, too. July was down significantly from the preceding July as well.

This is an update to my previous chart showing the M2 money supply and the median pricing in Colorado Springs. The R2 on this measure is .89. That’s a significantly high positive correlation (translation: follow the M2 to see where housing is going). Interest rates have a .5 correlation, which is the top end of […]

What you see here is a correlation matrix. This chart shows the correlation coefficient between variables. I.e., it shows the relationship between the listed variables in a house. E.g., in the last 30 days there is a .52 correlation between the closed price of a home and the total number of baths. This is a […]